CHINA remains the single largest contributor to global economic growth and its influence is growing by way of increasing overseas investment. Indicative of this is the fact that in 2016 China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) surpassed inward FDI for the first time in recent history.

The latest edition of The China Compass from the Beijing Axis states that in 2016 there was record outflow of investment from China totalling US$183.1 billion while inward FDI was about US$135 billion. China was second in OFDI behind the US with $299 billion.

It says although China is in a long-term structural adjustment phase towards lower GDP growth, it maintains world-leading growth rates and this year GDP growth reached 6.9%.

The hallmarks of China’s new economic growth model are growing domestic demand, particularly from the increasing middle class, and increased outward investment, despite recent state-imposed OFDI curbs.

“For the last 30 years China has traditionally been a net importer of FDI, with the country being an attractive investment destination since the mid-1990s, however recent years have seen China evolve into a major global investor,” The China Compass states.

This new role is characterised by a surge in outward M&A, with traditional ‘old economy’ deals overshadowed by emerging ‘new economy’ outbound deals, as Chinese companies recognise the need to invest in foreign technology and expand market reach.

The OFDI flow is geographically diverse. Apart from Asia, attention is increasingly concentrated in North America and Europe. In 2015 Asia received US$108.4 billion, or 70%, North America $10.7 billion, Europe $7.1 billion, Latin America $12.6 billion, Africa $3 billion and Oceania $3.9 billion.

Long-term resource security concerns have seen strong OFDI in overseas mining. The China Compass says in 2015 mining received US$11.3 billion and was fifth highest sector behind leasing and business services, financial services, manufacturing, and wholesale and retail trade. This was up from $5.7 billion in 2010.

Much of the OFDI occurs through M&A although over the last 10 years deal-making in traditional industries like mining have slowed while the chemical and logistics industries have seen large activity.

“China is the world’s largest exporter and ranks only behind the US as the largest importer. China’s position as a trade behemoth and its favourable trade surplus give it the necessary economic clout to make valuable overseas investments,” it adds.

Trade with Asia and Europe is being enhanced by the Belt and Road Initiative, and this will increase as links become established.

Major Chinese miners are embracing the initiative. China National Gold Group is looking to intensify exploration and investment in Silk Road countries while Zijin Mining has projects in three countries along the route as part of its ‘Go Global’ strategy, and Zhaojin Mining Industry Co has set a three-to five-year horizon to set out along the route.


中企寻求海外投资

中国仍然是对全球经济增长贡献最大的单一经济体,这种影响通过其不断增加的海外投资也在不断加深。很能说明问题的是2016年中国的对外直接投资(OFDI)超过了对内直接投资,这是近年来的首次。

北京中外商桥咨询服务公司最新版的《The China Compass(中国指南)》杂志指出,2016年中国对外投资达到了创纪录的1831亿美元,而对内直接投资为1350亿美元。中国位列全球直接对外投资(OFDI)总量第2位,第1位美国的总量为2990亿美元。

该杂志指出,尽管中国正处于为提高已放缓的GDP增速而进行长期结构调整的阶段,其GDP增速仍然处于全球领先水平,本年度的GDP增速已达到6.9%

中国新的经济增长模式的标志是增加国内需求,特别是规模正在增大的中产阶级的需求,同时增加对外投资,尽管近期国家对直接对外投资设置了一些障碍。

该杂志指出:“过去30年,中国已成为传统的外资净进口国,从1990年代中期中国就是极具吸引力的投资地,然而,近年来中国正在转变为重要的全球投资者。

对外并购是这一新角色的显著特征,当中国的企业认识到了对国外技术进行投资和扩展市场规模的需要时,“新经济体”对外投资的光芒盖过了传统的“老经济体”。

从地理角度说,对外投资的目的地不一而足。除了亚洲之外,焦点正在向北美洲和欧洲聚集。2015年,从对各地的投资额看,亚洲1084亿美元,占比70%,北美107亿美元,欧洲71亿美元,拉美126亿美元,非洲30亿美元,大洋洲39亿美元。

对资源长期安全性的考虑导致了对海外矿业领域的直接投资。《The China Compass》指出,2015年,对矿业领域的投资为1130亿美元,位列租赁和商业服务业、金融服务业、制造业、批发和零售业之后,排名第5。这比2010年的57亿美元大幅上升。

尽管过去的的10年传统行业如矿业的交易放缓,而化工和物流行业表现活跃,大部分的对外直接投资通过并购实现。

杂志补充之处: “中国是世界上最大的出口国,也是排名仅次于美国的第二大进口国。中国的贸易巨鳄地位和贸易顺差赋予了其进行海外价值投资的必要经济影响力”

“一带一路”倡议正在加强中国与亚洲和欧洲的贸易,在联系建立之后贸易会进一步增加。

中国主要的矿企都在支持这一倡议。中国黄金集团正在谋求加强对丝绸之路沿线国家的勘探和投资,作为“全球化”战略的一部分,紫金矿业在这一路线的3国家拥有项目,招金矿业也制定了沿丝绸之路的的3-5年远景规划。

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